WILL THERE BE A REVOLUTION IN GREECE ?:

The game of "international financial chicken" is continuing with a three pointed struggle involving international finance, the Greek government and the population of Greece. In reality no one side can win in the sense of getting everything they want. International finance (and the EU) cannot pull the plug and let Greece sink. Sovereign default is not the sort of thing that can be risked, especially as there are other dominoes in line. The Greek government cannot afford to go fully one way or the other. It has to placate both its creditors and the populace. The ordinary Greek people, in their demonstrations, also cannot stop all austerity measures, and outside of political rhetoric they know it. Here in North America a certain naive and romantic set of leftists (mostly anarchists) see the events in Greece through rose coloured glasses. They fail to understand that rebellion without a plan is the furthest thing from revolution. Thus they read their own illusions into the events in Greece.

Molly presents this latest questionnaire so that you can give your own opinion. Have fun. It's better than having your pension cut.

POLL NUMBER 11:

WHAT COUNTRY WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT SOCIAL REBELLION IN 2009 ?:

As I am writing this there is a continued series of protests in the country of Iceland, and they have been significant enough that the riot police have had to use tear gas for the first time since protests against joining NATO in 1949. Iceland, of course, is the country hit hardest by the recent financial crisis, and the discontent with the government has united a wide spectrum of its citizens. These events follow on the rebellion in Greece last month which seems to be still simmering. In many other countries the economic hard times are coalescing with a host of other grievances to produce a rebellious mood not seen in decades.

Not that "rebellion" is anything near "revolution". Far from it in fact, despite the illusions of far too many rebels. It is a simple fact that there is no revolutionary ideal in any aspect except the broadest and most abstract feelings- rather than goals- afoot in the world today that has captured the imagination of even a significant minority in any country in the developed world. Leninism has been discredited. In some Latin American countries there is a coherent left socialism that has achieved popularity. Its own virtues, possibilities and faults are best left for another discussion. In the developed world it is indeed possible that rebellions will carry left social democratic politicians to power, but the chances of this resulting in any fundamental change are virtually zero.

But rebellions there will almost certainly be. European governments are planning crisis management for this eventuality/certainty (See Molly's Blog for further discussion). Are the present events in Iceland "significant rebellion" ? That is a matter of opinion. They may indeed overthrow the government and lead to a leftist coalition in new elections. Other countries in southern Europe have a longer tradition of militant rebellion. Other countries in eastern Europe are in economic straights that come close to those of Iceland. In China more people are suffering more grievously than anywhere in Europe. It is also possible that government attempts to stimulate the economy worldwide will lay a gigantic egg. Or maybe they will succeed.

So what is your opinion. take the poll. leave any other comments you might have on the situation as a comment here.